The January unemployment figures came out this week, together with some other important economic data.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rose to 12.9% in Birmingham, from 12.8% in December and 10.5% a year ago. This compares to the national rate, which is now 5.9%. In Acocks Green the undajusted figure rose by 24 in the month to 1,360 (or 12.3%), which is up 298 on the year. These figures continue the trend we have seen in recent months of the rise in Birmingham continuing albeit at a slower rate than before, while the national rise has come to a halt.

The other figures published this month point to a very difficult future. Retail sales fell much further than was forecast in January. A fall was expected because of the bad weather but they fell further than was predicted. Even more gloomily the government borrowing requirement in January was very bad. Normally the government makes a surplus in January due to the timing of tax receipts. But this year, even this factor did not prevent a borrowing requirement of £4.3bn in the month.

The rapid rate of growth of the national debt is simply unsustainable. While it would be better for growth, to hold off spending cuts for as long as we can, to do so for too long is to risk a downgrading of our debt and then enforced cuts as Greece has had to endure. So deep public sector spending cuts are coming soon, whoever wins the election. As a result it is hard to see a rosy future for unemployment unless the private sector can grow quickly to take up the slack.

The legacy of the Blair / Brown Government, which they claimed to have ended boom and bust, seems more and more likely to be a long period of economic stagnation and high unemployment. The answer, as Vince Cable has said, lies in having a credible plan to tackle the deficit, which the markets believe and will allow us to keep investment going. This can buy us the time to avoid us to having to cut too hard too soon.

There is a way through the economic fog but it will take a skilled operator to lead us there. For me that is Vince - not the Labour leaders who have led us into the mess we are in and certainly not the Tories who seem to be thrashing around, this way and that, for a coherent economic policy.